The RiskSIGNAL Report

By Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®

Macro Insights, Actionable Investment Ideas, and Education. From the desk of Ivory Hill's CIO, Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® directly to your inbox. Long-term outperformance is achieved through the avoidance of major market crashes.

Macro Insights, Actionable Investment Ideas, and Education. From the desk of Ivory Hill's CIO, Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® directly to your inbox. Long-term outperformance is achieved through the avoidance of major market crashes.

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15

issues

#15・

Oversold Markets Can Turn Into Market Crashes

I have received a lot of questions about how to incorporate active management using your 401k plan investments. I have recently partnered with an online tool that helps us automate this process. This system tells you what investments to buy, when to buy them,…

 
#14・

Fear Forms Bottoms

I have received a lot of questions about how to incorporate active management using your 401k plan investments. I have recently partnered with an online tool that helps us automate this process. This system tells you what investments to buy, when to buy them,…

 
#13・

US Dollar is Signaling a Sovereign Debt Crisis

Central bankers always try to avoid their last big mistake. So every time there's the threat of a contraction in the economy, they'll over stimulate the economy, by printing too much money. The result will be a rising roller coaster of inflation, with each hi…

 
#12・

The RiskSIGNAL Report - The Bear Market Phase II

In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine. -Benjamin Graham

 
#11・

The RiskSIGNAL Report: Do Bear Market Rallies Turn Into Long-Term Bull Markets? - Issue #11

Last week, the Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL flipped green on a short-term basis, but NOT the intermediate-term or long-term trend, which is still red. The market is very overbought, and a pullback is likely, so be on the lookout for pullbacks to continue, and if our…

 
#10・

The RiskSIGNAL Report - The Bond Market Is Calling For A Recession Issue #10

The market has now exited its short-term trading range and the Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still red, and we are sitting on 60% cash and we have increased our exposure to long-term Treasuries to roughly 12%. Although there are some excellent buys available, caut…

 
#9・

The RiskSIGNAL Report: Three Keys To A Stock Market Bottom - Issue #9

The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still firmly in the red and we are sitting on 70% cash. For those of you not up to speed, our proprietary indicator, the Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL went negative in January and we moved to 60-70% cash at that time. The trend is clearly…

 
#8・

The RiskSIGNAL Report: Q2 2022 Market Update and Q3 2022 Market Outlook - Issue #8

The S&P 500 continued to decline in the second quarter, hitting the lowest level since December 2020 as still-high inflation, sharp increases in interest rates, rising recession risks, and ongoing geopolitical unrest pressured stocks and other assets.Afte…

 
#7・

The RiskSIGNAL Report: The Calm Before The Storm - Issue #7

The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still firmly in the red and we are sitting on 70% cash. The market traded almost in lockstep to last week’s post, with the S&P 500 index rallying up to the 3,900 area before the short-sellers brought the market back down. Anot…

 
#6・

The RiskSIGNAL Report: The Cash Buildup Continues As Bear Market Rallies Give Hope - Issue #6

I will be reaching out to you if I think a Roth Conversion makes sense for your situation. Down markets are a great time to take advantage of Roth Conversions because you can potentially save money on the conversion taxes.If you haven’t yet scheduled your qua…

 
#5・

The RiskSIGNAL Report: Is the Stock Market Running the Fed? - Issue #5

The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is firmly red, and we are still sitting around 60% cash levels.The markets have gotten so bad that it might actually be a positive in the short term. Confidence has dropped to the lowest levels that I have seen in my career.The NASDA…

 
#4・

The RiskSIGNAL Report: June Market Expectations Update - Issue #4

The June Market Expectations Table substantially indicates that the stock market's comeback from the May 20 lows has been fueled by real improvements in the two most critical factors influencing this market: Chinese lockdowns and Fed rate hike expectations. W…

 
#3・

The RiskSIGNAL Report - Issue #3

The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still clearly negative, and we are still sitting on a lot of cash and we have increased our allocation to Treasuries. As it stands, we are sitting in about 53% cash and 15% Treasuries.As stated in my previous post the market was d…

 
#2・

Bonds Are Back And The Selloff May Just Be Getting Started - Issue #2

The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still firmly red, and we are still sitting on 60% cash and 4-5% Treasuries. The market will rip higher, we just don't know when, but we are in a very great position considering our cash levels. Our buy list three months back was o…

 
#1・

The 100 Year Old Dow Theory is now Bearish - Issue #1

The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL remains red, and we are still hovering around our maximum cash levels, which is a very solid 60%. Having a lot of cash could be very good for us when the market rips higher.Before we discuss Dow Theory, I want to address a question I…